Continuing in the same vein as the recent state preview, a brief look at each section for the upcoming season:
Section 1
Rochester Century won the section 2015, and should return enough talent to contend for back-to-back section titles. On the other hand, 2015 runner-up Lakeville North loses the majority of their varsity squad and will have their hands full attempting to return to the state meet. The team to watch in a wide open section, however, is Lakeville South, who returns the entire varsity squad from 2015's 5th place team.
Top Teams:
1. Lakeville South - 105.99
2. Century - 105.51
3. Red Wing - 104.93
4. Northfield - 104.21
5. Mayo - 103.60
Section 2
Chanhassen and Shakopee finished 1-2 in the section in 2015, and could potentially recreate that finish this year. Both return more than half of their varsity rosters, and have the opportunity to contend for another state berth. Looking to challenge these two teams are Marshall, Chaska, and Buffalo, who each return six of seven from last year's teams. However, Chaska and Buffalo both lose their top individuals from last season, leaving Marshall the favorite to mix up last season's results.
Top Teams:
1. Chanhassen - 105.12
2. Marshall - 104.47
3. Shakopee - 103.64
4. Buffalo - 103.14
5. Chaska - 103.03
Section 3
Section 3 figures to be perhaps the most competitive in the state this year, with the top three teams from last year locked together near the top. Defending section champion Prior Lake is the likely favorite, but Eagan and Rosemount both seem posed to contend for a trip to state, if not the section title. Eastview warrants a mention as a team on the rise, although it remains to be seen if the top three are within the Lightning's reach.
Top Teams:
1. Prior Lake - 107.02
2. Eagan - 106.31
3. Rosemount - 106.25
4. Eastview - 105.05
5. Henry Sibley - 103.23
Section 4
If any section were to retain form from 2015, section 4 is probably the most likely do to so. Stillwater and White Bear Lake both lose some scoring members from last year's teams, but both reload well enough to remain favored in 2016. The team that ran closest to the top two in 2015, St. Paul Highland Park, loses its top two scorers and will be hard-pressed to challenge in 2016. They will likely battle Central, Roseville, Cretin-Derham Hall, and Woodbury for the right to pull off an upset at the section meet.
Top Teams:
1. Stillwater - 108.33
2. White Bear Lake - 106.30
3. Central - 103.55
4. Highland Park - 102.65
5. Woodbury - 102.54
Section 5
Section 5 was among the most unpredictable sections at the end of last season, with Centennial and Mounds View ultimately taking the two state qualifying spots. They, along with 2015 4th-placer Maple Grove, figure to fight at the top of a competitive section in 2016. Centennial, returning all seven of their 2015 section champion athletes, figure to be the favorite for the section title and a high finish at the state meet. 2015 6th-placer Blaine also returns all seven, and should be aiming to go even higher in 2016.
Top Teams:
1. Centennial - 109.51
2. Maple Grove - 107.20
3. Mounds View - 106.69
4. Blaine - 104.78
5. STMA - 103.92
Section 6
The most feared section in the state appears to have a more clear-cut top two in 2016 than in recent years. Wayzata and Edina both had the unusual distinction of finishing in the top 15 at NXN last season despite failing to qualify for the state meet here in Minnesota. While both may return to Portland this fall, they are far more likely to do so as state participants. Last year's top two, Hopkins and Washburn, lose many seniors but still figure to field strong teams in 2016. However, strong teams in section 6 often come far short of qualifying for state. They, along with Minnetonka, Eden Prairie, and Armstrong, will do what they can to make things difficult for the two at the top.
Top Teams:
1. Wayzata - 113.92
2. Edina - 112.84
3. Minnetonka - 108.90
4. Hopkins - 108.34
5. Eden Prairie - 105.92
Section 7
Section 7 was a fairly senior-laden section in 2015. While Elk River and Duluth East lose several seniors each, they both return with a chance to repeat their 2015 state berths due to similar graduation-induced damage on many of the teams behind them. Cloquet missed state on a heartbreaking tiebreaker in 2015, but have as good a chance as anybody to win the section in 2016. Forest Lake, 6th in the section in 2015, suffers no such graduation loss and figures to contend in 2016 as well.
Top Teams:
1. Elk River - 104.55
2. Cloquet - 104.44
3. Duluth East - 103.27
4. Forest Lake - 103.17
5. Andover - 101.45
Section 8
A year removed from placing two teams in the top six at the 2015 state meet, section 8 appears to have the strength and depth to again be one of the top sections in the state in 2016. The top teams from 2015, Bemidji and Willmar, lose a few seniors each, while young teams like Detroit Lakes bring back an entire varsity roster to challenge the status quo. The end result is as many as six or seven teams beginning the season with a reasonable shot at state.
Top Teams:
1. Bemidji - 107.43
2. Sartell - 106.23
3. Willmar - 105.92
4. Detroit Lakes - 105.49
5. Alexandria - 104.24
Monday, August 29, 2016
Thursday, August 25, 2016
2016 State Preview
Using CCRS data from returning underclassman, I was able create a complete preseason projection for the 2016 season. It is not perfect - each team is rated solely on how its underclassman preformed in their last meet of the 2015 season, and I cannot account for athletes that have left or joined the program. However, it should provide as accurate an assessment as any heading into this season. With that in mind, here's a brief 2016 preview based on CCRS ratings:
Hopkins took the top spot at last year's state meet, just ahead of Section 6AA compatriot Minneapolis Washburn. Both teams, however, lost several seniors from last year's squads face an uphill battle to return to 2015's lofty heights. Indeed, it is two teams who did not qualify out of Section 6AA last year that may have the best chance to win the state's toughest section. Wayzata and Edina both lose several seniors from their own squads, but, in typical fashion, manage to reload with stellar underclassman. The Trojans and Hornets are favorites not only to finish first and second in Section 6AA, but at the state meet as well. If they are successful, it will mark the fourth consecutive year in which teams from the section occupy the top two steps on the state podium.
Recently, a third place finish in Section 6AA has validated your argument as the third best team in the state. That may not be true this year, as the rest of Section 6AA appears to be fractionally weaker than in 2015. Now, Section 6AA is still clearly the state's most competitive. Although depth is lacking, the top-heavy section boasts 6 of the top 18 teams in the preseason CCRS ratings. Minnetonka, Hopkins, Eden Prairie, and Washburn will lead the charge to challenge the two favorites for a trip to state.
What about the other sections? Which other teams look poised to fight for a spot on the podium at season's end? The odd's on favorite may be Centennial, who return everybody from last year's seventh place team. Stillwater will once more be the favorite in Section 4AA and should have podium aspirations once again. Meanwhile, Bemidji and Prior Lake are among the teams returning much of their cores from last year's state meet squads.
Some teams that did not qualify for state last year may have a bright 2016 in front of them as well. Chief among them is Maple Grove, who returns nearly everyone from last season and begins the 2016 campaign in the CCRS top 10. Three other teams who did not qualify for state last year begin this season ranked in the top 15. Eagan, Sartell, and Lakeville South all bring back the majority of their varsity runners from 2015, and hope to make this the season they punch their tickets to the state meet.
Top 10 Preseason Teams
Wayzata - 113.92
Edina - 112.84
Centennial - 109.51
Minnetonka - 108.9
Hopkins - 108.34
Stillwater - 108.33
Bemidji - 107.43
Maple Grove - 107.2
Prior Lake - 107.02
Mounds View - 106.69
Hopkins took the top spot at last year's state meet, just ahead of Section 6AA compatriot Minneapolis Washburn. Both teams, however, lost several seniors from last year's squads face an uphill battle to return to 2015's lofty heights. Indeed, it is two teams who did not qualify out of Section 6AA last year that may have the best chance to win the state's toughest section. Wayzata and Edina both lose several seniors from their own squads, but, in typical fashion, manage to reload with stellar underclassman. The Trojans and Hornets are favorites not only to finish first and second in Section 6AA, but at the state meet as well. If they are successful, it will mark the fourth consecutive year in which teams from the section occupy the top two steps on the state podium.
Recently, a third place finish in Section 6AA has validated your argument as the third best team in the state. That may not be true this year, as the rest of Section 6AA appears to be fractionally weaker than in 2015. Now, Section 6AA is still clearly the state's most competitive. Although depth is lacking, the top-heavy section boasts 6 of the top 18 teams in the preseason CCRS ratings. Minnetonka, Hopkins, Eden Prairie, and Washburn will lead the charge to challenge the two favorites for a trip to state.
What about the other sections? Which other teams look poised to fight for a spot on the podium at season's end? The odd's on favorite may be Centennial, who return everybody from last year's seventh place team. Stillwater will once more be the favorite in Section 4AA and should have podium aspirations once again. Meanwhile, Bemidji and Prior Lake are among the teams returning much of their cores from last year's state meet squads.
Some teams that did not qualify for state last year may have a bright 2016 in front of them as well. Chief among them is Maple Grove, who returns nearly everyone from last season and begins the 2016 campaign in the CCRS top 10. Three other teams who did not qualify for state last year begin this season ranked in the top 15. Eagan, Sartell, and Lakeville South all bring back the majority of their varsity runners from 2015, and hope to make this the season they punch their tickets to the state meet.
Top 10 Preseason Teams
Wayzata - 113.92
Edina - 112.84
Centennial - 109.51
Minnetonka - 108.9
Hopkins - 108.34
Stillwater - 108.33
Bemidji - 107.43
Maple Grove - 107.2
Prior Lake - 107.02
Mounds View - 106.69
Welcome
Welcome! To my pet statistics project - the Minnesota cross country ratings website. As a statistics buff who used to compete and coach at the high school level in Minnesota, it seemed like a fun thing to begin creating this rating system last year. Effectively, CCRS was designed as a way to compare teams and individuals who have not actually raced each other. It is a cross-comparison of all results from all teams in the state, presented in numerical fashion. You can read about how it works over here. Although I've managed to streamline the process fairly well, the time constraints will limit me to only analyzing the AA boys this year. A few other random stats can be found on this site as well, but it will largely serve as a collection of CCRS data. Ask questions, share with others, enjoy!
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