CCRS: Griak and Milaca Predictions in Review

Two of the largest cross country meets in the Midwest took place last weekend. Rough CCRS projections were produced for both Griak and Milaca (posted only on tracktalk.net, not on this site), with the Milaca 4A race being discussed here.



As part of a discussion on the validity of CCRS, a look back at each of those meets is below.

Griak

A simulated meet can be run through the CCRS system by projecting a team's season CCRS score on their individual runners, using the spread at each team's last race. This was done with the seven highest ranked teams participating in the Griak Gold race. Projected scores and final scores (after removing all other teams) are given below:

Team	Projected Score	Actual Score
Wayzata	30	28
Edina	50	77
Minnetonka	96	102
Hopkins	121	109
Eagan	124	126
Washburn	141	135
EP	144	135

The seven teams in question finished in the projected order in the meet itself, with each team scoring reasonably close to the projected value. This is particularly true when you account for the loss of Edina's # 2 runner. With his finish, Edina likely would have scored in the 60s with each other team scoring a couple points higher. At Griak anyway, CCRS projections predicted nearly perfectly the actual meet results.

Milaca

The Milaca 5-team projection was nearly as accurate as the Griak projection

Team	Projected Score	Actual Score
Stillwater	54	47
Maple Grove	56	56
Mora	75	74
Centennial	74	75
Perham	73	80

However, this more serves to highlight the inherent problem with using a 5-team projection to peg a twenty team meet. The projection saw a close race between Perham, Mora, and Centennial, and it was fairly accurate in a sense. But thanks to the many runners from other teams that finished ahead of their 4 and 5 runners, Mora and Perham ended up some 40 points back of Centennial in the actual meet. Clearly, any incomplete projection should be taken with a grain of salt.

Last week's discussion on the validity of CCRS predicted that Maple Grove would run 7 seconds faster than Stillwater and either win or lose by only a couple of points. In reality, when you insert CJ Young's freshman victory into the varsity race, Maple Grove was only 2 seconds faster than Stillwater and lost 79-97. Of course, Young ran largely alone and may have placed higher (as he usually has) in the varsity race. How might have that result played out in different situations? Would 7 seconds (or an additional five seconds per runner) have given Maple Grove the victory?

Scenario	Score
2 sec Maple Grove advantage	79-97 S
Young runs 25 seconds faster for 7 sec average gap	79-81 MG
Each MG athlete runs 5 seconds faster for 7 sec average gap	79-87 S

As it turns out, either team may have won depending on how those additional seconds were distributed. As it stands now, the close match-up between these two teams may ultimately determine a podium place at the state meet. If each team performs as they have, roughly 6-9 seconds continues to be the gap that Maple Grove will need to beat the tightly-packed Ponies.

2016 Week 4

Week 4, Sept 26 CCRS ratings

	Team	CCRS
1	Wayzata	113.85
2	Edina	111.2
3	Minnetonka	109.62
4	Sartell	108.92
5	Maple Grove	108.73
6	Hopkins	108.71
7	Stillwater	108.37
8	Mounds View	107.81
9	Eagan	107.74
10	Centennial	107.69
11	Prior Lake	107.25
12	Washburn	107.23

                (full ratings can be found below)

Notes about Week 4 ratings:

* Every team in the ratings now has a recorded meet. Because preseason ratings have been removed from the formula, ratings for the first time are a complete reflection of what teams have done on the course.

* Week 1 meets are now being removed from the ratings. Their weight has been halved for this week's ratings, and they will be removed entirely in the week 5 ratings.

* This weekend, two AA races were held at both Griak and Milaca. The results from these races were not combined and CCRS scores were calculated separately. The expectation to this were the 9th and 10th grade races at Milaca - All scoring runners were included with the varsity results in calculating CCRS scores for the relevant teams. Chief among these teams is 5th ranked Maple Grove, who ran one of their scoring runners in the 9th grade race. Their score (108.85) reflects his result as if he had run the varsity race instead.

* Because CCRS is meant to represent a team's true strength and predict future performance, corrections are made whenever possible to account for missing runners. This is particularly true when top runners on top teams make an absence very easy to notice. This week, that means an adjustment to scores for Sartell and Edina. Nick Juntunen (DNS at Milaca) has proven himself to be Sartell's 3rd runner this season, while Zach Miller (DNF at Griak) has been Edina's consistent number two. Conservative estimates for such runners are made and CCRS scores calculated appropriately. However, such results are flagged and can be retroactively adjusted if there is no return to normalcy.

Facts and Info:

* For the third time in three weeks, Seth Eliason produced the top boy's performance in the state. His 3rd place finish at Griak was worth 118.78 points. Khalid Hussein of Wayzata, in his first meet since the opening week, matched Eliason's score with his 4th place finish.

* The top performances list continues to grow with the addition of Hussein and Patrick Roos of Edina.

*  The top girls score of the week, 118.85, belongs to Tierney Wolfgram of the Math and Science Academy. Already the top ranked runner in Class A, Wolfgram also defeated the top ranked AA girls at Griak. Emily Covert's 118.65 was the top AA score of the week.

* That Edina's comfortable Griak victory was their lowest scoring race of the season (115.55) speaks to how dominate they've been this season. Wayzata (111.52) and Marshall (110.54) were closest to the Hornets this week.

	Team	CCRS
1	Wayzata	113.85
2	Edina	111.2
3	Minnetonka	109.62
4	Sartell	108.92
5	Maple Grove	108.73
6	Hopkins	108.71
7	Stillwater	108.37
8	Mounds View	107.81
9	Eagan	107.74
10	Centennial	107.69
11	Prior Lake	107.25
12	Washburn	107.23
13	Eden Prairie	107.05
14	Chanhassen	106.24
15	Red Wing	106.1
16	Eastview	105.92
17	White Bear Lake	105.77
18	Central	105.58
19	Bemidji	105.58
20	Rosemount	105.53
21	Highland	105.43
22	Blaine	105.01
23	Henry Sibley	104.99
24	Cloquet	104.95
25	Forest Lake	104.6
26	Lakeville South	104.52
27	Century	104.2
28	Detriot Lakes	104.14
29	Buffalo	104.1
30	Waseca	103.98
31	Totino-Grace	103.9
32	Woodbury	103.83
33	Owatonna	103.81
34	Roseville	103.72
35	Little Falls	103.55
36	Alexandria	103.54
37	Mayo	103.38
38	Shakopee	103.38
39	Willmar	103.32
40	Elk River	103.27
41	Armstrong	103.17
42	STMA	103.03
43	Marshall	102.94
44	Kasson	102.88
45	Duluth East	102.8
46	Coon Rapids	102.61
47	Mankato West	102.43
48	Winona	102.39
49	Rocori	102.34
50	Northfield	102.29
51	Waconia	102.22
52	Burnsville	102.15
53	Farmington	102.11
54	Moorhead	102.09
55	Chaska	101.77
56	Apple Valley	101.74
57	East Ridge	101.65
58	Delano	101.55
59	Hutchinson	101.4
60	Andover	101.38
61	Lakeville North	101.34
62	Faribault	101.18
63	STA	100.95
64	St. Cloud Tech	100.92
65	Champlin Park	100.82
66	Jefferson	100.77
67	Hastings	100.75
68	Brainard	100.49
69	Benilde	100.42
70	New Prague	99.65
71	Albert Lea	99.64
72	Big Lake	99.63
73	Mankato East	99.55
74	CDH	98.96
75	Park	98.93
76	Grand Rapids	98.67
77	John Marshall	98.5
78	Rogers	98.45
79	Anoka	98.41
80	Cambridge	98.38
81	SLP	98.36
82	Apollo	98.18
83	Irondale	98.12
84	Worthington	97.95
85	Becker	97.3
86	Osseo	97.14
87	Dassel	97.06
88	Austin	97.05
89	Orono	96.84
90	Mound	96.79
91	Monticello	96.58
92	Sauk Rapids Rice	96.45
93	Como Park	96.31
94	Southwest	96.26
95	St. Francis	95.86
96	South	95.61
97	North Branch	95.37
98	St. Anthony	95.31
99	Hermantown	95.25
100	Mahtomedi	94.93
101	Hibbing	94.9
102	Fergus Falls	94.75
103	Spring Lake Park	94.36
104	North	94.17
105	Delasalle	93.72
106	Chisago	93.72
107	Holy Angels	93.56
108	Hill-Murray	92.99
109	Tartan	92.91
110	Fridley	92.79
111	Kennedy	92.7
112	South SP	92.27
113	Princeton	91.97
114	Theif River Falls	91.79
115	Richfield	91.49
116	Denfeld	91.25
117	Park Center	90.91
118	Simley	89.99
119	Harding	89.63
120	Cooper	89.27
121	Zimmerman	88.7
122	Washington	88.59
123	Roosevelt	85.72
124	ZMKW	85.55