2016 South Suburban Conference Preview

This is the second in a short series of conference meet previews. The Suburban East Conference will be previewed in the coming days.

Info
When: Friday, October 14
Where: Eagan High School
2015 Champion:
      Team - Lakeville North
      Individual - Colin Dwyer, Prior Lake (16:34)

Team Preview

Projected team scores:
Eastview - 69
Eagan - 72
Prior Lake - 84
Rosemount - 108
Lakeville South - 128
Shakopee - 148
Burnsville -180
Apple Valley - 185
Farmington - 201
Lakeville North - 217


      The South Suburban has been, by almost any measure, the second best conference in Minnesota in 2016. The Northwest Suburban and Suburban East both have a slightly better top two, but no conference matches both the quality and depth of the South Suburban. Boasting four of the top twenty teams in the state, the 10-team South Suburban is the only conference outside the 5-team Lake to place every member in the top half of the CCRS ratings.
      The best of these teams in 2016 has been Eagan, the 9th ranked team in CCRS. However, the Wildcats may not be the favorites they appear to be at first glance. Their primary challenger may be even more unexpected. 13th ranked Prior Lake has been the second fastest team in the conference this year, but their large spread may hurt their chances to win on Friday. Instead, its 16th-ranked Eastview that is poised not only to threaten Eagan, but is, according to CCRS, the outright favorite to win the 2016 title.
     Why Eastview? While they've been only the third fastest team in the conference this year, they've also been without their presumed top runner, Kevin Gunawan, for the duration of the season. Gunawan, the number four returner from the 2015 conference meet, returned recently to lead the Lightning to a victory at the Richard Mitchell invite in LaCrosse. However, Eastview was the only Minnesota team present at that meet, so its impossible to tell how well the team really ran. If they indeed produced a typical performance, then Gunawan appears ready to challenge for a top 5 finish on Friday. Combined with the team's solid season-long performance, Eastview is a justifiable favorite. This is the assumption being made for the sake of these simulations, although with a significant degree of uncertainty.
      Rosemount and Lakeville South will lead the teams challenging for the podium, although the strength of the top three teams will be difficult to overcome.


Each team's projected finish, based on 2000 simulations:

	Eastview	Eagan	Prior Lake	Rosemount	L South	Shakopee	Burnsville	A Valley	Farmington	L North
1	61.35%	37.75%	0.85%	0.00%	0.05%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
2	36.30%	51.95%	11.35%	0.00%	0.40%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
3	2.35%	9.95%	86.85%	0.05%	0.80%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
4	0.00%	0.35%	0.95%	84.00%	14.70%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
5	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	15.95%	65.25%	18.80%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
6	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	17.85%	80.60%	1.20%	0.35%	0.00%	0.00%
7	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.85%	0.60%	55.35%	42.60%	0.55%	0.05%
8	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.10%	0.00%	39.30%	51.90%	8.10%	0.60%
9	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	3.90%	4.85%	80.85%	10.40%
10	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.25%	0.30%	10.50%	88.95%

Individuals

      Defending conference champion Colin Dwyer of Prior Lake won a wide-open race in 2015, and is the favorite to repeat in 2016. Unlike last year, when Dwyer defeated several close challengers, his likely competition this year comes mainly from one athlete. Trenton Allen of Eagan, yet to receive a vote in this year's coaches polls, has flown under the radar this season. Allen, the 8th Minnesota finisher at Griak last month, has been the 14th fastest athlete in the state by CCRS. Friday will mark the opportunity for his biggest win of the season when he tries to take down Dwyer

      Allen's teammate, Joe Kelly, is the favorite to round out the podium, ahead of Luke Labatte (Rosemount) and Nate Blichfeldt (Burnsville). While 2015's top returner is favored to repeat his victory, other top returners are absent from the projected top five. However, Lakeville South's Sam Moerbitz (6th in 2015, 2nd returner) has been on the upswing in recent weeks and Kevin Gunawan, as mentioned above, has finally returned to racing form. Each could make a serious challenge for the top five.

Top individual projected finishes:

	Athlete	School	Time	Win %
1	Colin Dwyer	Prior Lake	16:22	65.9%
2	Trenton Allen	Eagan	16:25	28.3%
3	Joe Kelly	Eagan	16:34	5.7%
4	Luke Labatte	Rosemount	16:48	0.1%
5	Nate Blichfield	Burnsville	16:51