2016 AA Girls State Meet Preview - Teams

        This is the second of three posts previewing Saturday's AA Girls state meet. The first can be found here and the third (top individuals) will post later today.

        In 2015, the Edina girls scored a narrow state meet victory over Marshall, following a season in which several teams looked to make serious title runs. In 2016, the story has followed a different script. Not only did the defending champions return every varsity runner from their 2015 championship team, but they added 2015 class A runner-up Morgan Richter as a freshman. Richter has been one of the state's top runners all season, and Edina has rolled through their season in undefeated fashion. It is worth noting that 2015 podium finishers Marshall and Willmar lost only one senior between them (Marshall's #2 Jackie Turner) and return in 2016 hoping to at least replicate last year's results. However, as Edina has proved, its difficult to catch the best when the best get better.
        So is Edina a lock to win another title? Not exactly. While CCRS projects the Wayzata boys as an absolute lock to win the boys title, there is about a ten percent chance of an upset on the girls side. Why? The chart below illustrates the key difference between Wayzata and Edina. Wayzata's projected #7, Blake Buysse, is expected to finish ahead of nearly every other team's #1. Wayzata's depth allows them to whether injury, illness, DNFs, or any other hiccup...even if their top two runners go down, Wayzata remains a heavy favorite.

	Wayzata Boys	Edina Girls
CCRS Rank	1	1
CCRS Advantage	2.75	2.44
2016 Loses	0	0
Projected 5th	7th	8th
Projected 7th	10th	47th
95th% Team Score	35	50

 
        Edina, on the other hand, fits the profile of a more typical top-ranked team. They have an absolutely exceptional team, but they don't have a system of interchangeable parts in the same way that Wayzata does. Suffering the loss of a top runner does damage Edina's title chances, particularly with the strength behind them. The ~10% of simulations that result in a Minnetonka or Willmar championship feature one or two subpar races from Edina's scorers and exceptional races from the back half of the winning team. If Edina replicates a conference or section performance, they are certain to win, as their ceiling is clearly the highest in the state. If they somehow falter, other teams have the ability to take advantage.
        Those "other teams" primarily refers to Willmar, who have been (along with Edina) one of the nation's top-rated teams this season. While national ranking have placed Willmar just ahead of Edina throughout the season, CCRS projects a very clear gap in the other direction. Willmar has been just as dominant as Edina this season, but rarely against the same level of competition. While no doubt a fantastic team, the Cardinal will likely have to settle for second if Edina produces a typical performance, while hoping to put themselves in position to take advantage of a Hornet misstep.
        As mentioned above, Minnetonka and Marshall expect to be the primary players for the remaining podium spot, with Shakopee leading the dark-horse contenders hoping to break through the impressive top four. Other potential top five finishers include Lakeville South, returning to the state meet after a year away, and last years 5th and 6th place finishers, Forest Lake and Red Wing.
        The projections below represent the results of 1000 simulations of the meet, based on each teams performance in their section and conference meets


Projected Team Scores
1. Edina - 22
2. Willmar - 64
3. Minnetonka - 97
4. Marshall - 117
5. Shakopee - 152
6. Lakeville South - 180
7. Red Wing - 209
8. Forest Lake - 221
9. Henry Sibley - 276
10. White Bear Lake - 281
11. Brainerd - 285
12. STMA - 306
13. Roseville - 331
14. Centennial - 343
15. Jefferson - 353
16. Andover - 409

	Edina	Willmar	Minnetonka	Marshall	Shakopee	Lakeville South	Red Wing	Forest Lake
1	89.60%	8.10%	2.30%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
2	10.20%	71.60%	16.50%	1.70%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
3	0.20%	19.80%	65.70%	13.10%	0.90%	0.20%	0.00%	0.10%
4	0.00%	0.50%	14.30%	62.40%	14.80%	6.60%	0.00%	1.40%
5	0.00%	0.00%	0.90%	15.80%	37.40%	36.90%	3.10%	5.90%
6	0.00%	0.00%	0.20%	4.70%	29.30%	40.10%	13.20%	12.30%
7	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	1.80%	10.80%	13.20%	43.10%	29.90%
8	0.00%	0.00%	0.10%	0.40%	6.70%	2.80%	39.00%	43.60%
9	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.10%	0.20%	1.60%	5.40%
10	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.10%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.80%
11	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.30%
12	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.30%
13	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
14	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
15	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
16	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

	Henry Sibley	White Bear	Brainerd	STMA	Roseville	Centennial	Jefferson	Andover
1	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
2	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
3	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
4	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
5	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
6	0.10%	0.00%	0.00%	0.10%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
7	1.00%	0.10%	0.00%	0.10%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
8	3.40%	2.00%	0.50%	0.70%	0.80%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
9	28.90%	19.60%	16.80%	14.40%	13.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
10	21.50%	20.00%	23.90%	18.90%	13.50%	0.00%	1.20%	0.10%
11	15.30%	17.10%	26.70%	20.90%	16.70%	0.60%	2.20%	0.20%
12	15.10%	18.30%	20.50%	22.30%	16.70%	2.40%	4.10%	0.30%
13	10.30%	14.60%	9.50%	15.80%	20.20%	15.00%	13.00%	1.60%
14	3.00%	4.70%	2.10%	5.10%	9.90%	47.80%	24.10%	3.30%
15	1.20%	3.30%	0.00%	1.60%	7.20%	32.00%	42.10%	12.60%
16	0.20%	0.30%	0.00%	0.10%	2.00%	2.20%	13.30%	81.90%