Using CCRS data from returning underclassman, I was able create a complete preseason projection for the 2016 season. It is not perfect - each team is rated solely on how its underclassman preformed in their last meet of the 2015 season, and I cannot account for athletes that have left or joined the program. However, it should provide as accurate an assessment as any heading into this season. With that in mind, here's a brief 2016 preview based on CCRS ratings:
Hopkins took the top spot at last year's state meet, just ahead of Section 6AA compatriot Minneapolis Washburn. Both teams, however, lost several seniors from last year's squads face an uphill battle to return to 2015's lofty heights. Indeed, it is two teams who did not qualify out of Section 6AA last year that may have the best chance to win the state's toughest section. Wayzata and Edina both lose several seniors from their own squads, but, in typical fashion, manage to reload with stellar underclassman. The Trojans and Hornets are favorites not only to finish first and second in Section 6AA, but at the state meet as well. If they are successful, it will mark the fourth consecutive year in which teams from the section occupy the top two steps on the state podium.
Recently, a third place finish in Section 6AA has validated your argument as the third best team in the state. That may not be true this year, as the rest of Section 6AA appears to be fractionally weaker than in 2015. Now, Section 6AA is still clearly the state's most competitive. Although depth is lacking, the top-heavy section boasts 6 of the top 18 teams in the preseason CCRS ratings. Minnetonka, Hopkins, Eden Prairie, and Washburn will lead the charge to challenge the two favorites for a trip to state.
What about the other sections? Which other teams look poised to fight for a spot on the podium at season's end? The odd's on favorite may be Centennial, who return everybody from last year's seventh place team. Stillwater will once more be the favorite in Section 4AA and should have podium aspirations once again. Meanwhile, Bemidji and Prior Lake are among the teams returning much of their cores from last year's state meet squads.
Some teams that did not qualify for state last year may have a bright 2016 in front of them as well. Chief among them is Maple Grove, who returns nearly everyone from last season and begins the 2016 campaign in the CCRS top 10. Three other teams who did not qualify for state last year begin this season ranked in the top 15. Eagan, Sartell, and Lakeville South all bring back the majority of their varsity runners from 2015, and hope to make this the season they punch their tickets to the state meet.
Top 10 Preseason Teams
Wayzata - 113.92
Edina - 112.84
Centennial - 109.51
Minnetonka - 108.9
Hopkins - 108.34
Stillwater - 108.33
Bemidji - 107.43
Maple Grove - 107.2
Prior Lake - 107.02
Mounds View - 106.69
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