Validity of CCRS

Part 1 - How well does average time predict team results?

Tomorrow at the Milaca Mega Meet, Maple Grove will enter the AAAA race as the meet's top ranked team, both in the coaches poll and by CCRS. Their CCRS rating, 108.9, indicates that they have been about 7 seconds faster than tomorrow's nearest challenger, Stillwater (108.2). If they do, in fact, run seven seconds faster than Stillwater, they would of course, you'd think, win. Unless they don't.

The flaw in using team CCRS numbers to predict a future meet is that there does not exist a perfect correlation between average team time and finishing place. Sometimes, teams that run slower manage to beat teams that run faster. Because Stillwater has a tight 1-5 spread and because Maple Grove's CCRS score is buoyed by the front-running Alex Miley, tomorrow could be one of those times. In fact, if Maple Grove runs exactly 7 seconds faster than Stillwater, I expect the meet to come down to only a few points in one direction or the other. This of course raises questions regarding the validity of CCRS as a general metric. Later I'll look at how well the program predicts future performance, but here I'd like to look at its underlying premise - that the faster team wins.

CCRS does not actually assess results, but rather the times that teams run to achieve those results. (Elo ratings are essentially the opposite, taking into account only wins and losses). Its an obvious and intuitive concept - you run faster in order to beat more people, so the faster team usually wins. However, if times fail to predict results often enough, then the entire premise of CCRS would be flawed.

So how often do average times successfully predict results? Luckily, that's easy to observe:

2016 Win % By Time Gap

Time gap(s)	Win %
1	63
2	75
3	81
4	83
5	95
6-10	97.4
11+	99.8
Total	98.4

In 1855 dual meet results this season, the faster team has come out on top 1825 times, or 98.4%. Of the 30 teams that defeated a faster opponent, 25 overcame a gap of 4 seconds or less. What does that mean? Exactly what you would imagine - faster teams win nearly every race. It indicates that average time is fairly predictive even at a gap of 1-2 seconds, and that a gap of 5 or more seconds (corresponding to about 0.5 CCRS points) is nearly insurmountable.

CCRS is simply a reflection of how fast a team has run so far this season, accurate within a fraction of a percent. Of course no team or individual can be expected to be perfectly consistent, so results will fluctuate from meet to meet and unexpected performances will occur. But again, we'll discuss the predictive success of CCRS later. For now, this (in nearly all cases) validates team CCRS as a highly effective metric for assessing performance.

It also means that if CCRS is to be wrong tomorrow, it will mark a rare event. If Stillwater overcomes a 7-second margin to win at Milaca, it will only be the 4th time (in 117 chances) that a team defeats one that runs 6-10 seconds faster. It is entirely possible, though. Elo ratings actually give Stillwater a 67 percent chance of defeating Maple Grove in a dual meet, and individual CCRS scores predict a dual meet score of 27-29 in their favor.

If 6-8 seconds is indeed the margin, Maple Grove will need several runners to finish between Miley and Stillwater's first runner in order for their favorite status to hold. Both Stillwater and Maple Grove are talented teams with aspirations for high finishes at the state meet, so the race should be fantastic regardless.

2016 Week 3

Week 3, Sept 19 CCRS Ratings

	Team	CCRS
1	Wayzata	114.19
2	Edina	112.84
3	Sartell	109.58
4	Minnetonka	109.4
5	Maple Grove	108.93
6	Mounds View	108.51
7	Hopkins	108.36
8	Stillwater	108.16
9	Eagan	108.03
10	Centennial	107.58
11	Washburn	107.32
12	Prior Lake	107.25

                (full ratings can be found below)

Notes about Week 3 ratings:
* Preseason scores have been removed entirely from the ratings. The exception to this are the three teams that do not yet have a recorded varsity race against Minnesota AA competition. The most prominent of these teams if, of course, Edina. Edina has run their varsity squad twice this year, but have spent the early season racing in Iowa and have no results against Minnesota competition. Their score of 112.84 is their preseason rating and, while Edina has appeared to run well in Iowa, should be taken with a grain of salt.
* All recorded scores are currently weighted equally. Week 1 ratings will be phased out over the next two weeks to better reflect the a team's recent performance.


Facts and Info:
* While top ranked Wayzata sat their varsity team for another week, their second group won the Metro Invite with a CCRS score of 110.19. For the second consecutive season, Wayzata appears to have two full squads that would rank among the top 5 in the state. Third-ranked Sartell has a season score of only 109.54, although both they and Minnetonka have produced individual scores in excess of 110.19.
* For the second consecutive week, Seth Eliason posted the top individual CCRS in the state, with a 116.09 victory at Lucky Lindy.
* Alex Miley and Myles Flemming are new additions to the top performances list with their 1-2 finish at the Metro Invite.
* Anna Fenske produced the top girls score of the week, a 117 point performance in her victory at the AppleJack Invitational. Renae Anderson's victory at Lucky Lindy trailed by about three-quarters of a point, a result that suggests she too may be capable of a top-10 finish at season's end.
* Section 6AA is as strong as ever at the top, with 6 of the top 13 teams in the current rankings. It is not, however, the deepest section the entire way through. Section 1AA has more above average teams, 12, than other section, but with the unusual distinction that none are ranked in the top 16. For a snapshot of each section:

_________	Section 1	Section 2	Section 3	Section 4	Section 5	Section 6	Section 7	Section 8
AVG CCRS	101	101.1	99.7	98.8	100.2	101.4	97.5	100.5
# Top 16	0	0	4	1	3	6	0	2
# 100+	12	10	10	6	8	8	7	10

Full Rankings:

	Team	CCRS
1	Wayzata	114.19
2	Edina	112.84
3	Sartell	109.58
4	Minnetonka	109.4
5	Maple Grove	108.93
6	Mounds View	108.51
7	Hopkins	108.36
8	Stillwater	108.16
9	Eagan	108.03
10	Centennial	107.58
11	Washburn	107.32
12	Prior Lake	107.25
13	Eden Prairie	106.94
14	Eastview	105.83
15	Bemidji	105.83
16	Rosemount	105.78
17	Central	105.67
18	Highland	105.66
19	Chanhassen	105.66
20	Red Wing	105.61
21	Cloquet	105.18
22	White Bear Lake	105.14
23	Henry Sibley	104.94
24	Lakeville South	104.82
25	Forest Lake	104.66
26	Roseville	104.45
27	Century	104.45
28	Blaine	104.38
29	Buffalo	104.06
30	Totino-Grace	104.05
31	Waseca	104.05
32	Owatonna	103.86
33	Detriot Lakes	103.81
34	Woodbury	103.74
35	Mayo	103.42
36	Alexandria	103.42
37	Little Falls	103.36
38	Willmar	103.33
39	Duluth East	103.03
40	Elk River	103
41	Armstrong	102.92
42	Shakopee	102.76
43	Marshall	102.71
44	Coon Rapids	102.61
45	Rocori	102.55
46	STMA	102.48
47	Kasson	102.4
48	Waconia	102.37
49	Delano	102.25
50	Mankato West	102.24
51	Apple Valley	102.22
52	Winona	102.22
53	Northfield	102.2
54	Farmington	102.07
55	Moorhead	101.87
56	Burnsville	101.74
57	Chaska	101.61
58	Hutchinson	101.5
59	Champlin Park	101.45
60	Faribault	101.33
61	Hastings	101.28
62	St. Cloud Tech	101.13
63	Big Lake	101.12
64	Jefferson	101.05
65	Andover	101.01
66	East Ridge	101.01
67	Lakeville North	100.95
68	Benilde	100.81
69	STA	100.68
70	Grand Rapids	100.24
71	Brainard	100.17
72	New Prague	99.64
73	John Marshall	99.44
74	Mankato East	99.19
75	CDH	99.08
76	Park	98.96
77	Albert Lea	98.66
78	Anoka	98.46
79	Rogers	98.44
80	Cambridge	98.17
81	Irondale	97.99
82	Worthington	97.95
83	SLP	97.85
84	Austin	97.83
85	Monticello	97.76
86	Orono	97.36
87	Becker	97.35
88	Mound	97.16
89	Osseo	97.14
90	Dassel	97.06
91	Como Park	96.62
92	St. Francis	96.61
93	Apollo	96.24
94	Southwest	95.87
95	North	95.74
96	Mahtomedi	95.59
97	Hermantown	95.25
98	Sauk Rapids Rice	95.02
99	Hibbing	94.98
100	Fergus Falls	94.72
101	South	94.71
102	St. Anthony	94.45
103	Holy Angels	94.3
104	North Branch	94.28
105	Chisago	94.28
106	Spring Lake Park	94.14
107	Hill-Murray	93.59
108	Delasalle	93.45
109	Fridley	93.13
110	South SP	92.17
111	Tartan	92.08
112	Richfield	91.88
113	Theif River Falls	91.79
114	Denfeld	91.25
115	Kennedy	91.18
116	Park Center	90.53
117	Harding	89.63
118	Cooper	89.27
119	Simley	88.94
120	Princeton	88.92
121	Washington	88.85
122	Zimmerman	88.12
123	Roosevelt	85.72
124	ZMKW	85.55