2016 AA Boys State Meet Preview - Overall

        This is the first of three posts previewing the AA Boys race at this weekend's state meet. This post will focus on the complete overall projections, while the next two will focus on the team race and the top individuals.
        Projections for the meet were created by scoring each participating runner at both their section and conference meet. Because for most runners such data has only been recorded at these two meets, and because they should theoretically reflect the most accurate account of an athlete's current ability, no previous data is used in these projections. For these reasons, projections may not always align with the current CCRS data for a particular team or individual. A team that has trended up in recent weeks will be projected to outperform their current CCRS rating, while the opposite is also true.
        That said, the top individuals have tended to follow close to their season-long form at the conference and section meet. Seth Eliason of Hopkins has held a small but consistent gap over fellow Section 6 athletes Patrick Roos, Khalid Hussein, and Matt Wilkinson. After two more narrow victories at his conference and section meet, Eliason is projected to score another close win at the state meet. Innocent Murwanashyaka and Alex Miley (who beat Eliason in the opening meet of the season) are best positioned to threaten the Lake Conference quartet. It is worth noting that the first four athletes mentioned have had the benefit of racing one another nearly every time out, while Murwanashyaka and Miley have tended to win comfortably in what may or may not have been full maximal efforts. Anyone hoping for a victory by one of these two will note that these projections only reflect what the athletes have done so far, but may not reflect their true potential.
        As has been the case in recent years, Section 6 individuals are expected to make their presence widely known at the front of the race. In addition to the four mentioned above, an additional 12 athletes from the section are projected to earn All-state honors. No other section is projected to have more than 3 such athletes.
        Complete projected results are below. Projected finishing times are based on the course rating for the 2015 meet.

		Athlete	Team	Min	Sec
	1	Seth Eliason	Hopkins	15	25
1	2	Patrick Roos	Edina	15	30
2	3	Khalid Hussein	Wayzata	15	32
	4	Matt Wilkinson	Minnetonka	15	36
3	5	Alex Miley	Maple Grove	15	41
	6	Innocent Murwanashyaka	Como Park	15	51
4	7	Liban Jama	Wayzata	15	58
5	8	Grant Price	Wayzata	16	1
6	9	Jeremy Gilbertson	Wayzata	16	1
	10	Joseph Minor	Washburn	16	1
	11	Reed Kurak	Centennial	16	4
7	12	Grant Matthews	Wayzata	16	4
8	13	Gemechu Meskele	Wayzata	16	5
9	14	Owen Smalley	Edina	16	8
	15	Colin Dwyer	Prior Lake	16	9
10	16	Blake Buysse	Wayzata	16	11
11	17	Thomas Schauerman	Edina	16	12
	18	Tyler Moore	Little Falls	16	16
	19	Parker Phillips	Eden Prairie	16	19
12	20	Max Manley	Edina	16	19
13	21	Luke Labatte	Rosemount	16	21
	22	Adam Wilkinson	Minnetonka	16	21
14	23	Addison Stansbury	Stillwater	16	22
15	24	Isaac Berg	Bemidji	16	22
16	25	Trenton Allen	Eagan	16	23
	26	Antonio Judson	Century	16	23
17	27	Ezekial Lelinga	Mounds View	16	24
	28	Zach Risken	Eden Prairie	16	25
	29	Joseph Romain	Woodbury	16	25
18	30	Joe Kelly	Eagan	16	29
19	31	Justin Brakob	Maple Grove	16	30
20	32	Zach Miller	Edina	16	30
	33	Matt Cota	Washburn	16	30
21	34	Alex Nemeth	Sartell	16	31
	35	Kevin Gunawan	Eastview	16	32
22	36	Nicholas Scheller	Chanhassen	16	32
23	37	Zachary Long	Chanhassen	16	32
24	38	Ryan Fernholz	Sartell	16	33
	39	Acer Iverson	Roseville	16	33
	40	Dillon Diekmann	CDH	16	33
25	41	Torin Christianson	Chanhassen	16	34
	42	Myles Flemming	Henry Sibley	16	36
26	43	Charlie Babcock	Forest Lake	16	36
	44	Eli Hoeft	Hopkins	16	37
	45	Cole Streich	Waseca	16	37
	46	Hunter Zupko	Little Falls	16	37
	47	Ben Olson	Blaine	16	38
27	48	Travis Lorch	Rosemount	16	38
	49	Amanuel Roba	Central	16	38
28	50	Austin Streit	Mounds View	16	38
	51	Aaron Johnson	Detroit Lakes	16	39
29	52	Ben Vanderbosch	White Bear	16	39
	53	Keaton Gruber	Alexandria	16	40
30	54	Isaac Boedigheimer	Cloquet	16	41
31	55	Jack Deganda	Stillwater	16	41
32	56	Isaac Basten	Buffalo	16	42
	57	Tucker Sjomeling	Delano	16	42
	58	Tom Breuckman	Andover	16	42
33	59	Blake Iverson	Maple Grove	16	42
	60	Joseph Reimann	East Ridge	16	43
	61	Brent Heinen	Rocori	16	43
34	62	Linaes Whiting	Bemidji	16	43
	63	Sam Moerbitz	Lakeville South	16	44
35	64	Clay Quiring	Northfield	16	45
	65	Jack Otterson	Lakeville South	16	45
	66	Braydon Kubat	Owatonna	16	45
	67	Ryan Houseman	Hutchinson	16	45
	68	Christian Leonard	Elk River	16	45
	69	Mason Wendt	Willmar	16	45
	70	Sidney Gross	Highland	16	46
	71	Jack Korte	Henry Sibley	16	46
36	72	David Dahl	Mounds View	16	46
37	73	Mike Rohlinger	White Bear	16	47
	74	Paul Brietbach	Coon Rapids	16	47
	75	Oliver Paleen	Highland	16	47
38	76	Lucas Hessini	Mounds View	16	48
39	77	Noah Johnson	Stillwater	16	48
	78	Crimzon Anderson	Hastings	16	48
	79	Brennan Gustafson	Kasson	16	48
	80	Matt Cherne	Brainerd	16	48
	81	Eric Gibbons	Moorhead	16	48
40	82	Spencer Schultz	Rosemount	16	49
	83	Nick Olfert	Shakopee	16	49
	84	Corey Moody	Osseo	16	49
	85	Luke Kolar	St. Thomas	16	49
	86	Carter Briggs	Winona	16	50
	87	Mitchell Grand	Hutchinson	16	51
41	88	Tom Nemanich	Red Wing	16	51
	89	Chase VanKeulen	Marshall	16	52
	90	Carson Goodell	Albert Lea	16	52
	91	Kris Johnson	Highland	16	52
	92	Richard Beck	Orono	16	52
	93	Jonathan Sweeney	Centennial	16	53
42	94	Max Kuhs	Edina	16	53
	95	Jonah Breuer	STMA	16	54
43	96	CJ Young	Maple Grove	16	54
	97	David Temte	Kennedy	16	54
	98	Matt Dunn	Marshall	16	57
	99	Joe Dill	Henry Sibley	16	57
	100	Jacob Ring	Stillwater	16	57
45	101	Louis LeFabvre	Edina	16	58
46	102	Patrick Hesse	Sartell	16	59
47	103	Jace Bartz	White Bear	16	59
48	104	Isaac Holcomb	Maple Grove	16	59
	105	George Elsesser	Spring Lake Park	17	0
49	106	Asa Beckner	Red Wing	17	1
50	107	Bryan Zucker	Red Wing	17	2
	108	Alex Wolseth	STMA	17	2
51	109	Noah Kneeskern	Stillwater	17	2
52	110	Brett Hanson	Buffalo	17	2
53	111	Elliot Weisberg	Stillwater	17	3
54	112	Nathan Alto	Bemidji	17	3
55	113	Jonathan Meaden	Rosemount	17	3
56	114	Cody Roder	Bemidji	17	4
	115	Jacob Heyne	Elk River	17	5
57	116	Landon Tourville	Buffalo	17	5
	117	Mathew Trunta	Big Lake	17	7
58	118	Anders Bandt	Mounds View	17	7
59	119	Payne Freske	Rosemount	17	8
60	120	Aidan Ripp	Cloquet	17	9
	121	Josiah Huffman	Andover	17	11
61	122	Joey Lawson	Mounds View	17	11
62	123	Kenyon Nystrom	Northfield	17	12
63	124	Nick Juntunen	Sartell	17	12
64	125	Connor Denman	Cloquet	17	13
65	126	Adam Mcmonagle	Eagan	17	14
66	127	Isaiah Zak	Forest Lake	17	14
67	128	Tim Pease	Mounds View	17	15
68	129	Patrick Acton	Eagan	17	16
69	130	Alex Engelen	Stillwater	17	16
	131	Andrew Arthur	Duluth East	17	17
70	132	Parker Sinkkonen	Cloquet	17	19
71	133	Soren Dybing	Bemidji	17	19
72	134	Skyler Bennyhoff	Red Wing	17	20
73	135	Joseph Neufeldt	Northfield	17	21
74	136	Jonah Leise	Red Wing	17	21
75	137	Spencer Kotys	Forest Lake	17	22
	138	Vasak Cervenka	Grand Rapids	17	23
76	139	Tryg Solberg	White Bear	17	23
77	140	Ryan Steger	Eagan	17	25
78	141	David Anderson	Sartell	17	25
79	142	Gage Mostad	Bemidji	17	25
80	143	Sam Racine	White Bear	17	25
81	144	Zac Lane	Buffalo	17	26
82	145	Blaine Bong	Cloquet	17	27
83	146	Seth Jackson	Eagan	17	29
84	147	Nick Buiceag	Sartell	17	29
85	148	Danny Cox	Rosemount	17	30
86	149	Will Valentin	Forest Lake	17	30
87	150	Max Biechler	Rosemount	17	35
88	151	Braden Benson	Buffalo	17	36
89	152	Zach Wenning	Chanhassen	17	36
90	153	Lars Ripley	Northfield	17	36
91	154	Zach Harren	Sartell	17	37
92	155	Mitchell Holman	Chanhassen	17	37
	156	Eli Koski	Duluth East	17	38
93	157	Ben Roen	White Bear	17	38
94	158	Weston Wyatt	Red Wing	17	38
95	159	Wyatt Taylor	White Bear	17	39
96	160	Ryan Mead	Forest Lake	17	39
97	161	Sawyer French	Maple Grove	17	45
98	162	Tucker Wallin	Red Wing	17	45
99	163	Connor Wesling	Northfield	17	47
100	164	Nick Oak	Buffalo	17	50
101	165	Drew Sampson	Forest Lake	17	51
102	166	Zac Fouquerel-skoe	Bemidji	17	54
103	167	Ryan Russek	Buffalo	17	57
104	168	Edison Foster	Northfield	18	1
105	169	Jared Weins	Maple Grove	18	1
106	170	Blake Desmond	Cloquet	18	3
107	171	Tanner Brady	Chanhassen	18	8
108	172	John Miller	Northfield	18	12
109	173	Andrew Haines	Forest Lake	18	14
110	174	Braden Johnson	Chanhassen	18	23
111	175	Dane Loberg	Eagan	18	26
112	176	John Waltjer	Cloquet	19	41