17:12. The state's fastest 5K in 2016. Turned in last Thursday at the Section 1 meet by Farmington's Anna Fenske. Ordinarily, caution would be warranted when relying on a raw time to determine how good a performance really is. And in some sense, that holds true here too. However, the CCRS score attached to that performance, 120.87, is phenomenal. The top performance in the state this season, it suggests that Fenske may be ready for something special at the state meet.
However, many other top athletes will have their eyes on denying Fenske the podium's top step. Primarily, these challenges will come from two places - her Farmington teammate Lauren Peterson, and a talented group of runners from Section 6. Peterson obviously has the most experience racing with and against Fenske, but has only defeated her a single time this season. While she managed to reverse the order at Griak, she has tended to trail 10-20 seconds behind Fenske in most races this season. Last week at Section 1 she herself turned in one of 2016's best performances with a 17:20 that saw her push Fenske nearly the entire way.
As many as half a dozen girls will come from last week's Section 6 meet with hopes of winning on Saturday. Jaycie Thomsen was runner-up last week at Section 6, but turned in a better conference performance (barely, ahead of Fenske) than anybody in the state with her victory at Lake Conference. Her consistent presence at the front of loaded fields suggests she will be a factor in some way or another on Saturday. She will likely be joined near the front of the race by the Edina duo of Morgan Richter and Section 6 champion Amanda Mosborg. On an incredibly talented team, these two have stood out as the best, particularly during the back half of the season. Each of these three, plus Minnetonka's Sophie Whicher, will certainly be hoping for individual glory on Saturday.
One further individual who deserves special mention is Emily Covert of Minneapolis Washburn. Covert was the top AA girl at Griak earlier this season, defeating each and every runner mentioned this far. So why is Covert projected to finish only 9th? Unfortunately for Covert, she has not had the opportunity to race the same kind of regular competition that other top girls have. When she finally did again last week at Section 6, she managed only a 6th place finish. She has certainly shown the ability to beat everybody in this race, but she'll need a much better performance than she had in recent weeks in order to do it. And if Fenske races like she did last week, it may not matter regardless.
Willmar's Sophie Schmitz, Chanhassen's Anastasia Korzenowski, and Edina's Maria Rickman and Emily Komplelien lead the challengers hoping to find themselves near the front on Saturday. Some 30 girls likely have a plausible shot at the top 10, with another 30 reasonably hoping for an all-state result.
Results below are based on 1000 simulations of the 25 projected all-state athletes. Unlike the boys projections, these include only section and conference results. This likely underrates an athlete like Covert, as mentioned above.
| Anna Fenske | Lauren Peterson | Jaycie Thomsen | Amanda Mosborg | Morgan Richter | Sophie Whicher | Sophie Schmitz | Maria Rickman | |
| 1 | 61.90% | 27.90% | 4.70% | 2.30% | 2.10% | 0.70% | 0.20% | 0.00% |
| 2 | 26.40% | 39.80% | 12.10% | 7.20% | 7.50% | 2.00% | 1.00% | 0.90% |
| 3 | 7.00% | 15.50% | 20.20% | 14.70% | 15.00% | 7.80% | 2.90% | 3.30% |
| 4 | 2.50% | 7.80% | 16.30% | 15.80% | 14.80% | 9.70% | 4.10% | 5.40% |
| 5 | 1.40% | 4.10% | 13.50% | 13.30% | 12.70% | 7.30% | 6.00% | 5.60% |
| 6 | 0.20% | 1.50% | 8.00% | 10.70% | 9.80% | 8.20% | 6.60% | 6.70% |
| 7 | 0.40% | 1.20% | 6.20% | 7.40% | 8.90% | 8.30% | 7.90% | 7.20% |
| 8 | 0.10% | 0.60% | 4.50% | 6.40% | 6.80% | 7.30% | 4.20% | 6.60% |
| 9 | 0.10% | 0.30% | 2.70% | 4.00% | 4.50% | 7.80% | 6.40% | 7.00% |
| 10 | 0.00% | 0.30% | 2.70% | 3.80% | 3.30% | 7.10% | 4.80% | 6.70% |
| 11-15 | 0.00% | 0.70% | 6.10% | 10.30% | 9.20% | 21.10% | 26.70% | 22.90% |
| 16-20 | 0.00% | 0.30% | 2.60% | 3.60% | 4.40% | 9.80% | 18.50% | 18.10% |
| 21+ | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.40% | 0.50% | 1.00% | 2.90% | 10.70% | 9.60% |
| Emily Covert | Anastasia Korzenowski | Emily Kompelien | Elizabeth Klecker | Jessa Hanson | Tate Sweeney | Tess Misgen | Alyson Welch | |
| 1 | 0.10% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 2 | 0.20% | 0.60% | 0.50% | 0.20% | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.70% | 0.10% |
| 3 | 2.10% | 1.50% | 1.80% | 1.40% | 1.20% | 1.40% | 2.30% | 0.70% |
| 4 | 4.90% | 2.30% | 2.30% | 2.10% | 2.40% | 1.70% | 2.40% | 1.30% |
| 5 | 5.00% | 5.50% | 4.20% | 3.60% | 2.80% | 3.40% | 3.20% | 1.90% |
| 6 | 6.00% | 4.10% | 5.10% | 3.50% | 4.00% | 4.30% | 4.10% | 2.30% |
| 7 | 5.30% | 5.30% | 4.50% | 5.30% | 3.70% | 3.30% | 4.30% | 2.50% |
| 8 | 5.40% | 4.80% | 6.10% | 4.80% | 6.30% | 4.70% | 4.20% | 3.20% |
| 9 | 4.40% | 4.60% | 6.50% | 5.90% | 4.40% | 5.50% | 3.80% | 3.90% |
| 10 | 6.20% | 5.20% | 5.90% | 6.00% | 5.00% | 5.20% | 4.10% | 4.10% |
| 11-15 | 26.80% | 28.00% | 27.20% | 25.70% | 24.60% | 23.80% | 24.60% | 24.00% |
| 16-20 | 18.90% | 21.60% | 20.80% | 23.90% | 26.00% | 24.50% | 27.70% | 27.60% |
| 21+ | 14.70% | 16.50% | 15.10% | 17.60% | 19.50% | 22.10% | 18.60% | 28.40% |
| Malakai Holloway | Brianne Brewster | Kylie Melz | Regan Duffy | Grace Johnson | Kayla Rudie | Claire Boersma | Kenall Pfrimmer | Grace Dickel | |
| 1 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 2 | 0.10% | 0.00% | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.00% | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.00% | 0.10% |
| 3 | 0.70% | 0.80% | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.20% | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.50% |
| 4 | 1.50% | 0.50% | 1.20% | 0.70% | 0.60% | 0.70% | 0.60% | 1.10% | 0.70% |
| 5 | 1.70% | 1.70% | 1.40% | 0.90% | 1.50% | 0.90% | 1.00% | 0.90% | 0.90% |
| 6 | 2.80% | 2.60% | 2.30% | 0.80% | 1.50% | 1.10% | 1.50% | 1.00% | 0.80% |
| 7 | 2.80% | 2.80% | 1.60% | 2.20% | 2.10% | 1.70% | 1.80% | 1.80% | 1.20% |
| 8 | 4.10% | 2.40% | 3.10% | 3.50% | 3.00% | 1.60% | 2.70% | 1.60% | 1.70% |
| 9 | 3.40% | 2.80% | 2.60% | 3.20% | 3.30% | 2.80% | 3.00% | 3.10% | 2.70% |
| 10 | 3.90% | 4.10% | 4.20% | 3.00% | 3.10% | 3.00% | 3.20% | 3.00% | 2.90% |
| 11-15 | 26.10% | 26.40% | 21.10% | 22.00% | 20.10% | 19.20% | 20.00% | 19.50% | 18.50% |
| 16-20 | 26.00% | 29.60% | 28.50% | 29.70% | 29.00% | 29.10% | 27.40% | 24.60% | 26.10% |
| 21+ | 26.90% | 26.30% | 33.70% | 33.70% | 35.50% | 39.50% | 38.50% | 43.30% | 43.90% |
