2016 Week 6

Week 6, Oct 10 CCRS Ratings

	Team	CCRS
1	Wayzata	113.57
2	Edina	110.08
3	Minnetonka	108.99
4	Hopkins	108.65
5	Maple Grove	108.55
6	Stillwater	108.31
7	Mounds View	108.1
8	Sartell	107.78
9	Eagan	107.51
10	Eden Prairie	107.17
11	Washburn	107.11
12	Centennial	106.56

                    (full results can be found below)

Facts and Info:

* For the first time this season, Patrick Roos produced the top individual performance of the week. His 114.77 performance at Victoria Lions led Edina to the team victory.

* 2nd ranked Edina did not, however, post the top team race of the week. That honor belongs to Mounds View, ranked only 7th in CCRS but evidently on the upswing. They scored 109.27 in winning the Lions Meet of Champions.

* The girls race at Victoria Lions was nearly a state meet simulation. In fact, the top ten averaged only about a point behind the top ten at last year's state meet

Anna Fenske - 118.95

Morgan Richter - 118.3

Sophie Whicher - 117.02

Amanda Mosborg - 116.7

Renae Anderson - 115.66

Anastasia Korzenowski - 115.46

Tess Misgen - 115.05

Maria Rickman - 114.64

Sadie Schreiner - 114.64

Brianne Brewster - 114.34

 Winners at other large meets last week include Annalise Davis at STMA (113.75), Emily Covert at Blaine (113.29), and Korzenowski herself at Alexandria (115.12).

* As has been the case all season, the Edina girls posted the top team score of the week, with a 114.95 score at Victoria Lions. As has also been the case all season, Willmar led the state's challengers with a 112.66 victory at Alexandria.
* The Minnetonka (110.64), Eden Prairie (110.47), and Washburn (110.1) girls posted the 3rd, 4th, and 6th best scores in the state this week and are each clearly among the top seven teams in the state. They each have work to do, however, to take down Edina and Wayzata (111.70 at Willmar two weeks ago) at Section 6AA later this month.

	Team	CCRS
1	Wayzata	113.57
2	Edina	110.08
3	Minnetonka	108.99
4	Hopkins	108.65
5	Maple Grove	108.55
6	Stillwater	108.31
7	Mounds View	108.1
8	Sartell	107.78
9	Eagan	107.51
10	Eden Prairie	107.17
11	Washburn	107.11
12	Centennial	106.56
13	Prior Lake	106.53
14	Red Wing	106.16
15	Chanhassen	106.11
16	Eastview	105.93
17	White Bear Lake	105.83
18	Bemidji	105.65
19	Rosemount	105.55
20	Central	105.49
21	Highland	105.28
22	Cloquet	105.2
23	Henry Sibley	104.88
24	Blaine	104.56
25	Woodbury	104.16
26	Detriot Lakes	104.12
27	Forest Lake	104.11
28	Lakeville South	104.07
29	Alexandria	103.96
30	Willmar	103.89
31	Century	103.86
32	Little Falls	103.73
33	Shakopee	103.6
34	Buffalo	103.57
35	Armstrong	103.51
36	Owatonna	103.46
37	Elk River	103.4
38	Roseville	103.32
39	STMA	103.16
40	Marshall	103.12
41	Duluth East	102.95
42	Totino-Grace	103.02
43	Moorhead	102.76
44	Northfield	102.75
45	Waseca	102.66
46	Coon Rapids	102.55
47	Burnsville	102.53
48	Kasson	102.49
49	Mankato West	102.33
50	Winona	102.28
51	East Ridge	102.22
52	Mayo	102.15
53	Waconia	102.12
54	Rocori	102.09
55	Farmington	102.07
56	Apple Valley	101.49
57	Delano	101.47
58	Lakeville North	101.43
59	Faribault	101.3
60	Andover	101.28
61	Jefferson	101.16
62	STA	101.02
63	Chaska	100.95
64	Brainard	100.57
65	Hutchinson	100.55
66	Champlin Park	100.53
67	Hastings	100.46
68	Albert Lea	100.24
69	New Prague	99.92
70	Mankato East	99.9
71	SLP	99.81
72	Apollo	99.73
73	St. Cloud Tech	99.56
74	John Marshall	99.19
75	Big Lake	99.01
76	Park	98.86
77	Anoka	98.84
78	Cambridge	98.8
79	Benilde	98.27
80	Irondale	98.2
81	Rogers	98.04
82	Worthington	97.95
83	CDH	97.93
84	Orono	97.74
85	Austin	97.68
86	Mound	97.49
87	Becker	97.29
88	Sauk Rapids Rice	97.28
89	South	97.24
90	Osseo	97.12
91	Dassel	97.06
92	Grand Rapids	97.17
93	Monticello	96.46
94	Southwest	96.45
95	Como Park	96.1
96	Kennedy	96.05
97	St. Francis	95.81
98	St. Anthony	95.79
99	North Branch	95.49
100	Hermantown	95.03
101	Fergus Falls	95.19
102	Hibbing	95.43
103	Delasalle	94.93
104	Mahtomedi	94.34
105	Spring Lake Park	94.28
106	North	93.99
107	Chisago	93.89
108	Tartan	93.42
109	Hill-Murray	93.2
110	Holy Angels	93.16
111	Fridley	92.51
112	South SP	92.2
113	Princeton	92.03
114	Richfield	91.84
115	Theif River Falls	91.79
116	Park Center	91.34
117	Denfeld	90.63
118	Simley	90.34
119	Harding	89.69
120	Cooper	89.41
121	Zimmerman	89.13
122	Washington	88.48
123	ZMKW	86.07
124	Roosevelt	85.32

2016 South Suburban Conference Preview

This is the second in a short series of conference meet previews. The Suburban East Conference will be previewed in the coming days.

Info
When: Friday, October 14
Where: Eagan High School
2015 Champion:
      Team - Lakeville North
      Individual - Colin Dwyer, Prior Lake (16:34)

Team Preview

Projected team scores:
Eastview - 69
Eagan - 72
Prior Lake - 84
Rosemount - 108
Lakeville South - 128
Shakopee - 148
Burnsville -180
Apple Valley - 185
Farmington - 201
Lakeville North - 217


      The South Suburban has been, by almost any measure, the second best conference in Minnesota in 2016. The Northwest Suburban and Suburban East both have a slightly better top two, but no conference matches both the quality and depth of the South Suburban. Boasting four of the top twenty teams in the state, the 10-team South Suburban is the only conference outside the 5-team Lake to place every member in the top half of the CCRS ratings.
      The best of these teams in 2016 has been Eagan, the 9th ranked team in CCRS. However, the Wildcats may not be the favorites they appear to be at first glance. Their primary challenger may be even more unexpected. 13th ranked Prior Lake has been the second fastest team in the conference this year, but their large spread may hurt their chances to win on Friday. Instead, its 16th-ranked Eastview that is poised not only to threaten Eagan, but is, according to CCRS, the outright favorite to win the 2016 title.
     Why Eastview? While they've been only the third fastest team in the conference this year, they've also been without their presumed top runner, Kevin Gunawan, for the duration of the season. Gunawan, the number four returner from the 2015 conference meet, returned recently to lead the Lightning to a victory at the Richard Mitchell invite in LaCrosse. However, Eastview was the only Minnesota team present at that meet, so its impossible to tell how well the team really ran. If they indeed produced a typical performance, then Gunawan appears ready to challenge for a top 5 finish on Friday. Combined with the team's solid season-long performance, Eastview is a justifiable favorite. This is the assumption being made for the sake of these simulations, although with a significant degree of uncertainty.
      Rosemount and Lakeville South will lead the teams challenging for the podium, although the strength of the top three teams will be difficult to overcome.


Each team's projected finish, based on 2000 simulations:

	Eastview	Eagan	Prior Lake	Rosemount	L South	Shakopee	Burnsville	A Valley	Farmington	L North
1	61.35%	37.75%	0.85%	0.00%	0.05%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
2	36.30%	51.95%	11.35%	0.00%	0.40%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
3	2.35%	9.95%	86.85%	0.05%	0.80%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
4	0.00%	0.35%	0.95%	84.00%	14.70%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
5	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	15.95%	65.25%	18.80%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
6	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	17.85%	80.60%	1.20%	0.35%	0.00%	0.00%
7	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.85%	0.60%	55.35%	42.60%	0.55%	0.05%
8	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.10%	0.00%	39.30%	51.90%	8.10%	0.60%
9	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	3.90%	4.85%	80.85%	10.40%
10	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.25%	0.30%	10.50%	88.95%

Individuals

      Defending conference champion Colin Dwyer of Prior Lake won a wide-open race in 2015, and is the favorite to repeat in 2016. Unlike last year, when Dwyer defeated several close challengers, his likely competition this year comes mainly from one athlete. Trenton Allen of Eagan, yet to receive a vote in this year's coaches polls, has flown under the radar this season. Allen, the 8th Minnesota finisher at Griak last month, has been the 14th fastest athlete in the state by CCRS. Friday will mark the opportunity for his biggest win of the season when he tries to take down Dwyer

      Allen's teammate, Joe Kelly, is the favorite to round out the podium, ahead of Luke Labatte (Rosemount) and Nate Blichfeldt (Burnsville). While 2015's top returner is favored to repeat his victory, other top returners are absent from the projected top five. However, Lakeville South's Sam Moerbitz (6th in 2015, 2nd returner) has been on the upswing in recent weeks and Kevin Gunawan, as mentioned above, has finally returned to racing form. Each could make a serious challenge for the top five.

Top individual projected finishes:

	Athlete	School	Time	Win %
1	Colin Dwyer	Prior Lake	16:22	65.9%
2	Trenton Allen	Eagan	16:25	28.3%
3	Joe Kelly	Eagan	16:34	5.7%
4	Luke Labatte	Rosemount	16:48	0.1%
5	Nate Blichfield	Burnsville	16:51

2016 Lake Conference Preview

This is the first in a short series of conference meet previews. Previews of the South Suburban and Suburban East meets will post in the next week.

Info
When: Friday, Oct 14
Where: Gale Woods, Minnetrista
2015 Champion:
      Team - Hopkins
      Individual - Jaret Carpenter, Wayzata (15:16)

Team Preview

Projected team scores:
Wayzata - 28
Edina - 65
Minnetonka - 77
Hopkins - 88
Eden Prairie -104

       Wayzata has been the clear favorite from the beginning of the season, and have done nothing to call that assumption in to question. In addition to being the fastest team in the state this season, Wayzata has also been the deepest. No team is better prepared to absorb injuries, illness, or poor performance, limiting any other team's hope of catching Wayzata on an off day. In fact, thanks in part to this depth, Wayzata was victorious in all 2000 simulations of the meet.
      Edina remains the favorite for second place, despite a close call against Minnetonka at Victoria Lions. CCRS assumes this performance, without Zach Miller present, to be near the bottom of Edina's potential range. While Minnetonka has some chance to pull the upset (and set up a massive battle at sections) they are equally likely to be taken down by Hopkins.
      The four teams mentioned above are currently the four highest rated teams by CCRS. Despite occasional loses to other highly ranked teams, this is easily one of the best cross country conferences in the nation. Eden Prairie, currently ranked eleventh by CCRS, would be favored to win the majority of conferences in the state. Here, they face a massive uphill battle to avoid fifth. While there has been a fairly clear pecking order so far this season, the absolute talent of the teams present should make for a compelling, competitive race.


Each team's projected finish, based on 2000 simulations:

	Wayzata	Edina	Minnetonka	Hopkins	EP
1	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
2	0.00%	92.25%	7.25%	0.50%	0.00%
3	0.00%	7.50%	83.40%	9.05%	0.05%
4	0.00%	0.25%	9.35%	88.10%	2.30%
5	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	2.35%	97.65%

Individuals
      The Lake Conference also features many of the state's top individuals, including five of the top seven by CCRS ranking. The conference's top four athletes have combined for the season's nine-highest rated races between them.
      The slight favorite is Seth Eliason of Hopkins, who has barely edged Wayzata's Khalid Hussein in consecutive weeks. Patrick Roos of Edina and Adam Wilkinson of Minnetonka have both demonstrated the capacity to challenge the top two, but will have to have an extra gear if they hope to shake up the hierarchy established when each of the four raced two weeks ago at Griak.
      As was the case with the team race, several unmentioned athletes have the potential to win other conference meets, but will have to settle for a top-10 finish here instead.


Top individual projected finishes:

	Athlete	School	Time	Win %
1	Seth Eliason	Hopkins	15:24	49.5%
2	Khalid Hussein	Wayzata	15:24	46.5%
3	Patrick Roos	Edina	15:42	2.3%
4	Matt Wilkinson	Minnetonka	15:49	1.7%
5	Grant Price	Wayzata	16:05