Info
When: Friday, Oct 14
Where: Gale Woods, Minnetrista
2015 Champion:
Team - Hopkins
Individual - Jaret Carpenter, Wayzata (15:16)
Team Preview
Projected team scores:
Wayzata - 28
Edina - 65
Minnetonka - 77
Hopkins - 88
Eden Prairie -104
Wayzata has been the clear favorite from the beginning of the season, and have done nothing to call that assumption in to question. In addition to being the fastest team in the state this season, Wayzata has also been the deepest. No team is better prepared to absorb injuries, illness, or poor performance, limiting any other team's hope of catching Wayzata on an off day. In fact, thanks in part to this depth, Wayzata was victorious in all 2000 simulations of the meet.
Edina remains the favorite for second place, despite a close call against Minnetonka at Victoria Lions. CCRS assumes this performance, without Zach Miller present, to be near the bottom of Edina's potential range. While Minnetonka has some chance to pull the upset (and set up a massive battle at sections) they are equally likely to be taken down by Hopkins.
The four teams mentioned above are currently the four highest rated teams by CCRS. Despite occasional loses to other highly ranked teams, this is easily one of the best cross country conferences in the nation. Eden Prairie, currently ranked eleventh by CCRS, would be favored to win the majority of conferences in the state. Here, they face a massive uphill battle to avoid fifth. While there has been a fairly clear pecking order so far this season, the absolute talent of the teams present should make for a compelling, competitive race.
Each team's projected finish, based on 2000 simulations:
| Wayzata | Edina | Minnetonka | Hopkins | EP | |
| 1 | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 2 | 0.00% | 92.25% | 7.25% | 0.50% | 0.00% |
| 3 | 0.00% | 7.50% | 83.40% | 9.05% | 0.05% |
| 4 | 0.00% | 0.25% | 9.35% | 88.10% | 2.30% |
| 5 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 2.35% | 97.65% |
Individuals
The Lake Conference also features many of the state's top individuals, including five of the top seven by CCRS ranking. The conference's top four athletes have combined for the season's nine-highest rated races between them.
The slight favorite is Seth Eliason of Hopkins, who has barely edged Wayzata's Khalid Hussein in consecutive weeks. Patrick Roos of Edina and Adam Wilkinson of Minnetonka have both demonstrated the capacity to challenge the top two, but will have to have an extra gear if they hope to shake up the hierarchy established when each of the four raced two weeks ago at Griak.
As was the case with the team race, several unmentioned athletes have the potential to win other conference meets, but will have to settle for a top-10 finish here instead.
Top individual projected finishes:
The Lake Conference also features many of the state's top individuals, including five of the top seven by CCRS ranking. The conference's top four athletes have combined for the season's nine-highest rated races between them.
The slight favorite is Seth Eliason of Hopkins, who has barely edged Wayzata's Khalid Hussein in consecutive weeks. Patrick Roos of Edina and Adam Wilkinson of Minnetonka have both demonstrated the capacity to challenge the top two, but will have to have an extra gear if they hope to shake up the hierarchy established when each of the four raced two weeks ago at Griak.
As was the case with the team race, several unmentioned athletes have the potential to win other conference meets, but will have to settle for a top-10 finish here instead.
Top individual projected finishes:
| Athlete | School | Time | Win % | |
| 1 | Seth Eliason | Hopkins | 15:24 | 49.5% |
| 2 | Khalid Hussein | Wayzata | 15:24 | 46.5% |
| 3 | Patrick Roos | Edina | 15:42 | 2.3% |
| 4 | Matt Wilkinson | Minnetonka | 15:49 | 1.7% |
| 5 | Grant Price | Wayzata | 16:05 |
No comments:
Post a Comment