How Good Are The Edina Girls?

In 2015, the Edina girls narrowly defeated Marshall to win the state cross country meet by a score of 68 to 76. Unlike Marshall, who lost #2 finisher Jackie Turner to graduation, Edina has been fortunate enough to return their entire roster in 2016. Perhaps just as fortunately, Edina has gained the services of freshman Morgan Richter, who was last year the runner-up to Grace Ping in the Class A meet.

Predictably, Edina is the top ranked team in coaches poll as the season gets underway, and appears to have an excellent chance to produce five or more all-state runners at season's end. So just how good is this year's team? We'll have a much better answer to that question later in the season, but speculation is less fun after the races have been run.

First, some background. In 2015 the average top-5 varsity girl ran about 17.9% slower than the average top-5 varsity boy (obviously the switch to a girls 5k last year is what makes these comparisons possible). The top girls teams and the top boys teams routinely posted similar scores last year, usually falling in the 113-115 range. The 2015 Edina girls, then, routinely posted times that would score in the 96-97 range when scored to the boys standard - 96.96 at the section 6AA meet for example.

This is where the speculation comes into play - Are the Edina girls capable of living up to expectations? The only data point we have for the Edina girls this season is to compare them to the Edina boys, as both teams ran (and won) at the Spartan Invite down in Iowa. The Edina boys, who have a preseason CCRS rating approaching 113, averaged 16:37 for the 5K course. The Edina girls, meanwhile, averaged 18:55 on the same course, only 13.9% slower than the boys. If the Edina boys are as strong as expected, 18:55 represents a CCRS of 99.12 in the boys race (a score that suggests the Edina girls to be faster than more than 1/3 of boys teams in the state). Adjusted by 17.9%, the Edina girls produces a CCRS score of 116.9. This would be higher than any CCRS produced by any boys or girls team in 2015.

Is 116.9 a realistic benchmark for the Edina girls? The only solid frame of reference is their proximity to the Edina boys, so its arguably a tenuous assumption. However, after scoring 114.16 at last year's state meet, you'd certainly expect an improvement in 2016 even before you account for the addition of Richter. Furthermore, we can calculate a much firmer score for the Willmar girls, currently ranked 2nd in the state. They averaged 19:21 at Shocky Strand, where the presence of several teams (instead of 1) allows for a truly legitimate score to be calculated. Their score, 97.01 by the boys standard, converts to a CCRS of 114.41, right in line with the best teams from 2015. Edina certainly has the look of a dominant team, so a 2.5 point margin may not be unreasonable.

What will it mean if Edina produces performances that score in the 116-117 range this season? Only 15 individuals even scored over 115 at the state meet, so it would likely mean at least 5 all-state runners, 3 or 4 individuals in the top ten, and a team score in the thirties or low forties. Is this possible? Willmar, Wayzata, and Marshall will surely have something to say about it, but with 4 of the top 18 returning times from the state meet, Edina absolutely looks poised to challenge 2013 Wayzata as the most dominant girls team this century.